Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 262341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of western Africa near 
10N14W to 05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues 
from 05N17W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Clusters 
of moderate convection are from 01N to 07N between 10W and 20W. 
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of 
the ITCZ. 



The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the 
low pressure system over eastern Texas supports fresh to strong 
southerly winds over the western and central Gulf waters mainly
west of 88W while moderate southerly winds prevail east of 88W.
A surface trough extends across the Texas/north Mexico coast from
28N97W to 21N98W. Fair weather prevails across the basin at this 
time. Expect during the next 12 to 18 hours for a cold front to 
enter the northwest Gulf with convection. The front will stall 
across the north-central Gulf and weaken. Winds will increase 
across the western Gulf to briefly fresh and northerly behind the


High pressure well northeast of the Caribbean basin and lower
pressures over South America support mainly moderate east to
southeast winds over the Caribbean. Locally fresh to strong winds
are occurring near the coast of northern Colombia, and the 
northern coasts of Venezuela and Honduras. Dry air and subsidence 
are limiting convection to just some patches of showers in the 
trade wind flow primarily over the north central and eastern 
Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. 


Low-level moisture and daytime heating are supporting terrain- 
induced showers over the area. Expect for this activity to 
diminish by sunset, but a few quick-passing showers in the trade 
wind flow will continue affecting the island tonight. This 
pattern is expected to repeat itself on Thursday. 


Surface ridging dominates the majority of the basin anchored by a
1038 mb high centered near 45N47W. A surface trough extends from
30N67W to 27N68W with no significant convection. Another trough,
previously a stationary front, extends from 28N61W to 26N52W. A
low pressure system centered north of the area combined with the
broad high that prevails elsewhere are generating enough pressure
gradient to support moderate southwesterly winds east of 30W. Over
the next 24 hours an upper trough will develop near the Bahamas 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Apr-2017 23:41:19 UTC