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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 6N15W 5N25W 6N29W AND 4N37W.  
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 53W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS 
TO OKLAHOMA...AND FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST/TEXAS 
BIG BEND...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS 28N86W 29N90W...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST 
NEAR 29N96W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
28N98W IN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1013 MB LOW 
CENTER 28N99W...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 30N102W INTO WEST 
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 
30N BETWEEN THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO 97W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF 21N97W 24N90W...26N81W IN FLORIDA TO THE 
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DRIER AIR ALSO IS REACHING THE TEXAS 
GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH AND 
KEHC AND KMDJ AND KDLP WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND 
FOG...KVAF...KVQT...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KIKT...KVOA... 
KVKY...AND KMIS. KBBF IS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES 
AND FOG. 

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS 
BEING REPORTED FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD. THE LOW 
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ALSO COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL 
LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN ARE IN 
SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND IN 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. TALLAHASSEE 
FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
HONDURAS...TOWARD COZUMEL AND CANCUN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN 
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 21N87W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 17N85W...CURVING AROUND THE COASTS OF 
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO 9N83W IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF 13N84W 12N80W 10N76W. 

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND 
FLOW...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR 
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.26 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.08 IN 
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA 
NEAR 8N81W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. THE 
SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH 
REACHES 9N83W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW IS 
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. 

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN 
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW 
TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA...FROM SANTO DOMINGO 
TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
IN SANTO DOMINGO...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LA ROMANA 
AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUD CEILINGS AR IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW 
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE 
THAT RUNS FROM COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO HONDURAS. 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST 
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH  
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N BEYOND 32N FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N60W... 
26N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 
27N79W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
DISSIPATING FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N70W AND 31N76W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N51W 27N56W 25N60W 27N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 26N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. A WARM FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
26N45W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO 
25N44W AND 20N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 46W FROM 26N TO 31N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 
43W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 24N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N 
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N30W 21N33W...AND TO 
16N41W.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Dec-2014 18:05:17 UTC