Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231735

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.


A surface low currently centered over southeast Gulf near 24N82W 
will traverse S Florida to north of the Bahamas in 24 hours. The 
pressure gradient between this low and a high to the east will 
result in gale-force southeast winds by early Monday through 
early Tuesday north of 30N between 73W-74W. Seas will range 
between 10-12 ft in this area. Please see the latest High Seas 
Forecast product under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the 
AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 for further details.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 
10N15W to 03N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues 
from 03N28W to the South American coast near 03S43W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 14W-30W.  



A cold front extends over the western Gulf waters from 30N88W to
24N98W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. A surface
ridge is building in the wake of the front. The front will
continue moving southeast during the next 24 hours. A 1009 mb 
surface low is centered over the southeast Gulf near 24N82W. A 
surface trough extends from 27N83W to the low to 23N82W. Isolated 
persistent showers prevail with this low extending from 24N-27N 
and east of 83W. This low is expected to move northeast during the
next 24 hours entering the western Atlantic. Shower activity will
continue over the southeast Gulf and southern tip of Florida. 
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds over 
the northwest portion of the basin north of the front while 
variable gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 


A mid-level trough extends in diagonal across the northern 
Caribbean from the east Gulf of Mexico. Cloudiness and isolated 
moderate convection is observed north of 16N and east of 77W, with
strongest activity affecting the waters south of Hispaniola and
Jamaica. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across most of the basin east of 80W while light to gentle
variable winds prevail west of 80W. Expect for convection to
remain over the northern portion of the basin as another upper-
level trough enters the west Caribbean and a diffluent flow
prevails to the east of it.


Cloudiness and scattered showers are observed across the island,
with strongest activity prevailing over the coastal waters to the
south. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours.


Gale-force winds will develop across the western Atlantic. PLease
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft
prevails from 70W-80W supporting scattered showers in this area.
To the east, a 1020 mb surface high is centered near 29N67W.
Another 1020 mb surface high is centered over the eastern Atlantic
near 30N20W. With these, surface ridging prevails across most of
the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms to persist over the Bahamas as a
surface low enters the region from the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Little change is expected elsewhere. 

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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Apr-2017 17:35:38 UTC