AXNT20 KNHC 312350
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic extends along 24W
from 3N-12N moving west near 25 kt. Wave is embedded within a
area of Saharan dust and to the west of a low amplitude surge of
moisture. No associated deep convection.
Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 48W-49W from
5N-13N moving west near 25 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge
of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.
Tropical wave is along 59W/60W from the west Tropical Atlantic
near 13N to over South America moving west near 20 kt. Wave is
embedded within a surge of deep moisture. No associated deep
Tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean has moved inland
over Central America along 84W south of 16N moving west near 20
kt. Wave is embedded within an area of deep moisture that covers
most of the Caribbean. No associated deep convection.
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W along 10N19W to east of a tropical wave
near 5N24W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near 4N26W
along 1N40W to South America near 1N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 NM south of the monsoon
trough between 19W-22W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are south of 11N to inland
over South America between 50W-59W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper ridge is anchored in the east Pacific region extending
across the west Gulf of Mexico to over the Mississippi Valley
covering the Gulf west of 87W. An upper trough extends from the
eastern CONUS over the Florida peninsula and the east Gulf of
Mexico into the west Caribbean and west Atlantic. A surface
ridge covers the Gulf with a 1016 mb high near 28N86W. Afternoon
showers/ thunderstorms have been developed inland over most of
Florida, west Cuba, and the Yucatan peninsula. The activity over
Texas along the Texas coast is due to difflunce between the
upper ridge over the west Gulf and a large upper trough over the
central CONUS. These showers/thunderstorms could move into the
Gulf waters along the Texas coast overnight tonight. Otherwise,
skies are mostly clear across the Gulf basin this evening. The
surface ridge will persist though the week.
The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends over the
west Caribbean west of 74W. A low amplitude upper ridge extends
from over South America over the remainder of the Caribbean.
Upper diffluence between the upper level features is generating
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 16N between
73W-81W with scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms from 11N-14N between 72W-80W. The easterly trade
winds coupled with daytime heating are generating afternoon
showers/thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Cuba this evening.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are across the basin except light
and variable winds in the southwest Caribbean. Winds are
expected to increase between Colombia and Jamaica on Wednesday
night then expanding across the west Caribbean toward Cuba by
Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are across the island
this evening. This activity is associated with the easterly
trade winds, the upper trough to the west, and day time heating.
The upper trough will give way to the upper ridge to the east
covering the island by Thursday night. Afternoon showers/
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the week.
The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico covers the west
Atlantic west of 72W with a narrow upper ridge to the east
extending from the northern Leeward Islands to Bermuda. The
diffluent area between these upper features is generating
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 20N-28N between
66W-72W. The afternoon thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Cuba
are moving north into the west Atlantic waters. An upper trough
in the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters
the east Atlantic near 32N28W and extends along 27N41W to 29N52W
where it becomes stationary to beyond 32N57W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 27N35W along 26N45W to 27N55W. The remainder
of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a
1026 mb high near 39N50W. A weak surface ridge will build from
Bermuda to northeast Florida tonight through Thursday.
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