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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158 AAA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AMENDED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 68.5W AT 28/1200 UTC 
OR ABOUT 80 NM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 
335 NM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 63W-68W. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TURKS 
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINS 
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE 
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT1/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
15N33W TO A 1012 LOW NEAR 10N34W TO 07N35W...MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE PREVAILS IN THE 
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS NOTED IN TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 21N47W TO 07N50W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A SAHARAN 
DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING ANY 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
17N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ BEGINS 
FROM THAT POINT TO 10N47W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 37W-48W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 
TO THE S-SW ACROSS THE GULF TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W TO 23N87W TO 24N96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF MAINLY S OF THE FRONT. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW 
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM 
ERIKA CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE GULF COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA 
AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FAIR 
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE W 
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER WINDS SURROUNDING ERIKA MAINLY 
E OF 68W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR ERIKA TO CONTINUE 
MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THEN MOVE WNW ENTERING THE SW 
ATLANTIC.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE CENTER 
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER  
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. ERIKA IS EXPECTED 
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. TO THE 
SE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
STORM ERIKA...DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE...IS S OF 21N BETWEEN 62W-66W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE 
MOVING ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE 
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB 
HIGH NEAR 29N64W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N27W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 11:58:56 UTC