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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED AT 01/0000 UTC IS NEAR 17.4N 
25.0W... OR ABOUT 22 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SANTO ANTAO IN 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WIND...STORM SURGE...AND RAINFALL ARE 
THE MAIN THREATS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FRED IS MOVING 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 310 DEGREES...10 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT 
TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER  
WTNT31 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ 
ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE 
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N 
TO 19N BETWEEN 24W AND 25.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                         

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 
20N59W TO 16N61W AND 11N61W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 
KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES 
18N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 
16N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 20N 
SOUTHWARD...ACROSS JAMAICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS 
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THROUGH THE AREA OF AN INVERTED 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N29W 09N36W...TO A 1012 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 07N40W...TO 07N47W. THE ITCZ IS NOT 
PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
LINE FROM 11N25W TO 09N32W TO 07N39W 06N45W 08N49W 08N52W 11N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...                                            

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THIS WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW...THAT IS CONNECTED WITH A SOUTH TEXAS CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N98W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 
92W AND 100W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS UNDER UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EASTERN AND 
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 
29N83W TO 24N89W TO 19N93W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN 
FLORIDA...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
26N84W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.   
THIS SURFACE TROUGH REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PANAMA. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE 
NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN CENTRAL 
CUBA ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W 
AND 65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 86W 
IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN 
PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
31/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN 
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.08 
IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.03 IN MONTEGO BAY IN 
JAMAICA.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 20N 
SOUTHWARD...TOWARD TRINIDAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY 
REACH HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PANAMA. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE 
NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUNTA CANA. FEW 
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD 
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
WILL CROSS HAITI AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... 
AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS RESPONSIBLE 
FOR THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HAITI EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TOWARD 
SOUTHERN JAMAICA...AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE 
ENTIRE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS. A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 24 
HOURS...AND IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
NEAR 29N67W. LARGE-SCALE EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 
SLOWLY...CAUSING SOME SLIGHT WIND SHIFTS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                            

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY 
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS 
THE INVERTED TROUGH AT THIS MOMENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 
27N47W 24N55W 22N60W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
18N64W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 33N56W...AND A TROUGH THAT TRAILS THE LOW CENTER TO 
29N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN MULTILAYERED DEBRIS 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 
60W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N45W 18N64W 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND WARMING CLOUD TOP 
TEMPERATURES FROM AREAS OF DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 
30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND 66W.  

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N14W 26N30W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N52W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N69W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 00:05:54 UTC