Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 242359

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.


The frontal system that is currently over the west Atlantic will
continue enhancing convection/seas through the next few days. The
pressure gradient is expected to become tighter by tomorrow 
afternoon supporting gale-force northerly winds from 24N-26N 
between 66W-68W. These conditions will continue north of front 
through the weekend. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast 
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 
0104N13W to 01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends 
from 01N18W to the South American coast near 05S38W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ axis.



A dissipating stationary front extends from the Straits of 
Florida near 24N80W to 25N84W to the Florida Panhandle near 
31N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of the front 
while gentle to moderate southeast winds are depicted by 
scatterometer data elsewhere. Seas are around 2 to 4 ft in the 
western Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. No significant convection 
is noted at this time. During the next 24 hours, the front will 
fully dissipate as the high pressure centered over the west 
Atlantic spreads fresh to strong east to southeast winds over 
the Gulf waters.


A surface trough extends from a weak low centered over the 
Atlantic north of Puerto Rico near 21N63W to the Mona Passage 
near 18N68W to 15N68W supporting cloudiness and scattered 
showers within 90 nm of the trough. Scattered showrers are also 
over Hispaniola, E Cuba, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. In the 
upper levels, dry and subsident air associated with a broad 
upper-level trough is inhibiting thunderstorm activity over the 
west and central Caribbean. Little change is expected through 
the next 24 hours.


A surface trough east of the island is supporting showers and a 
few thunderstorms mainly over the eastern Hispaniola. Localized 
flooding could be expected mainly across the northern half of 
the island. A cold front will approach within the next 24 hours. 
A strong high pressure will continue building north of the area 
this weekend with strong easterly winds expected over the 
island, and large swell along the Atlantic coastline.


A frontal system extends across the west and central Atlantic 
analyzed as a cold front from 31N48W to 25N67W, then as a 
stationary front from that point to the Straits of Florida near 
24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A 
prefrontal trough extends from 31N47W to 26N52W to a weak 1014 
mb surface low near 21N63W to the Mona Passage near 18N68W. 
Scattered showers are observed within 90 nm on either side of 
the trough. A recent scatterometer pass depicts a band of 20-30 
kt winds within 100 nm north of the cold front between 57W- 67W. 
This same area is going to experience gale-force winds this 
weekend. Please refer to the section above for details. The 
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge 
anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 38N28W.

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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Mar-2017 23:59:32 UTC