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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310002
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS 
ALONG 31N77W TO 30N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO START TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING 
HOURS N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY 
SATURDAY MORNING FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS 
RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
AROUND 1200 UTC SATURDAY...AND RESUME AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING FOR A 
PERIOD OF SIX HOURS. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 42W...THEN SW TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W AND 43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 74W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS S-SW CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN THE CENTRAL GULF 
ALONG 27N82W TO 25N91W TO MATAMOROS MEXICO. THE FRONT CUT ACROSS 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EXTENDING INTO 
THE ENTIRE GULF. CONTINENTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH DRY 
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY 
FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE LIGHTER 
WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE IT IS 
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO SOUTHERN 
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN 
U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
THIS RIDGE WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT 
THROUGH SAT MORNING...THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. 
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT ALSO COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC IS 
SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE NW BASIN WHILE 
TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE NW FLOW IS 
CONVERGING ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WHERE A 
MOIST AIRMASS ENHANCES RAINSHOWERS EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM OFF 
THE COAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER 
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT 
WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA... 

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT 
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS. AS ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS...THE WESTWARD MOVING 
AIRMASS WILL STALL IN THE REGION ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 74W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N73W SW TO 
EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO START TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING HOURS N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE 
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 30N53W SW TO 21N62W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF FRONT N OF 
21N. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLC. THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL STALL TONIGHT 
AND DISSIPATE DURING SAT MORNING HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jan-2015 00:02:34 UTC