AXNT20 KNHC 251139
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 37.5N 53.5W at 25/0900 UTC
or about 552 nm south of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving northeast
at 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered to
numerous strong convection prevails north of 36N between 48W-55W.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends its axis from
14N34W to a 1011 mb surface low centered near 07N35W, moving west
near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a 700
mb trough noted in model guidance and is embedded within a surge
of moisture as seen in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection
has developed in the vicinity of these features extending from
06N-14N between 35W-42W.
A tropical wave in the west-central Tropical Atlantic extends its
axis from 22N57W to 12N58W, moving west near 15 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted in
model guidance and is embedded within an surge of moderate
moisture as seen in TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection
prevails along the southern portion of the wave's axis south of
14N between 57W-60W.
A tropical wave extends from the southern portion of Mexico into
the EPAC waters from 19N96W to 08N96W. This wave has moved west
at about 5-10 kt over the past 24 hours. A 700 mb trough is
depicted by global guidance near this area and abundant moisture
is noted in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails
in the wave's environment mainly between 93W-102W affecting the
southern portion of the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 20N
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N15W to the 1011 mb low described above centered
near 07N35W to 07N39W. The ITCZ begins near 07N39W to 07N49W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and low
along 35W, isolated moderate convection is 07N-12N between 20W-
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level low centered over the Florida Panhandle extends
its trough across the eastern Gulf waters east of 90W. At the
surface; a surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a
1017 mb high near 28N86W. The combination of a tropical wave
extending over southern Mexico and a thermal surface trough
extending across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 19N93W, is
enhancing convection over the southwest Gulf waters south of 20N
between 92W-97W. Another area of scattered moderate convection has
developed over the northwest Gulf mainly north of 26N and west of
91W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow prevailing over the Gulf waters. Expect for the surface ridge
to prevail across the basin within the next 24 hours. A weak cold
front will reach the northwest Gulf by late Monday, then stall and
dissipate in the northern Gulf by Tuesday.
A diffluent flow aloft is supporting cloudiness and scattered
moderate convection across the western Caribbean mainly west of
82W affecting portion of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The
Monsoon Trough extends along 11N between 76W-83W supporting
scattered moderate convection over the southern Caribbean waters.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin except south of 15N between 68W-75W where fresh to strong
winds prevail. Little change is expected within the next 24 hours.
A tropical wave will approach from the east with isolated showers
affecting the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday.
Isolated showers are observed across the island at this time.
Northerly flow aloft will persist across the area providing
moisture and coupled with the easterly trade winds will enhance
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the Tuesday.
Karl, and two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is
enhancing scattered moderate convection across the far west
Atlantic west of 77W. To the east of this activity; a 1016
surface high is located northeast of the Bahamas near 27N75W. The
remnants of T.D Lisa were analyzed as a 1011 mb low centered near
27N42W. Isolated convection is from27N-29N between 41W-43W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a pair of 1026 mb highs centered near 32N30W and
40N20W. Expect for Karl to continue moving northeast becoming a
hurricane by Sunday. A cold front drop south into the central
Atlantic on Monday enhancing convection, then becoming stationary
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