Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 291029

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 32N58W supporting a 1000 mb surface 
low centered near 31N59W. Near gale to gale force winds are 
occurring generally N of 29N between 61W-63W with fresh to strong
winds occurring elsewhere primarily within 300 nm of the NW 
semicircle of the low and within 420 nm of the E quadrant of the 
low as noted by earlier scatterometer data. The low is forecast 
to move NE through Thursday with the near gale to gale force wind 
area rotating around the base of the low. By Thursday night...the 
low will move N of the discussion area and be in the process of 
merging with a storm force low centered near 42N53W at 965 mb. 
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 
02N24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of
07N between 02W-16W.


A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf this morning
with water vapor imagery indicating a vigorous middle to upper 
level low centered over eastern New Mexico. At the surface...a 
ridge axis extends W-SW from a 1018 mb high centered across the 
east-central Gulf near 28N84W to the Mexico coast near 24N98W 
with a complex area of low pressure nearly collocated with the 
upper level feature across eastern New Mexico and northern Texas.
Mostly fresh to strong SE winds are noted W of 90W and with 
moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds noted E of 90W. Given the 
active convection across the interior portions of the southern 
Plains...skies remain relatively clear this morning across the 
Gulf waters. As the low ejects into the southern Plains fully by 
Wednesday afternoon...the associated cold front is forecast to 
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thursday morning.

West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
this morning with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water
vapor imagery. This stability filters to the surface with most of
the basin under relatively clear skies and fair conditions. One 
exception is an area of enhanced cloudiness and isolated showers 
occurring across the south-central waters from 11N-16N between 
65W-71W. With the Special Features low pressure area located N-NE
of Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and 
results in mostly gentle to moderate trades. This overall wind 
pattern is expected to persist through Thursday with the exception
of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras. 
Otherwise...little change is expected through the remainder of the

Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow
aloft...however a surface trough extends SW from the Special 
Features low pressure area to the NE coast of the island near 
20N69W. Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the 
surface trough is generating isolated showers across the NE coast
and adjacent coastal waters from 19N-20N between 67W-70W. As the 
low pressure area moves NE during the next 24 hours...conditions 
will trend drier Wednesday night into Thursday.

The primary focus for the SW North Atlc is the Special Features
low pressure area centered on a 1000 mb low near 31N59W. A warm 
front extends eastward from the low to 32N57W to 29N44W and 
provides much of the lift generating scattered showers and 
isolated tstms from 27N-36N between 43W-61W. The remainder of the
SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored 
by a 1018 mb high centered near 29N74W. Farther east across the 
central and eastern Atlc...surface ridging with axis extending 
from near the Madeira Islands near 32N16W to a 1022 mb high near
28N25W to a 1021 mb high centered near 30N41W is providing mostly
fair conditions E of 50W outside of the area influenced by the
aforementioned warm front.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Mar-2017 10:29:21 UTC