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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N12W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N26W TO 04N37W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
BASIN AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO A GREAT 
PORTION OF GULF WATERS. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SE TEXAS 
COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N94W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 
SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W THEN CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N90W TO 
28N85W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW 
AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N 
E OF 94W AND FOG ELSEWHERE W OF THE LOW. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OF 5-20 KT ACROSS THE 
BASIN AND ADVECT DRY COOL AIR TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
WATERS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF 
PROMOTES FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...HIGH 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN MOVING NW IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE 
LOW WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO 
COASTAL WATERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT. A LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE 
NE BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT 
BECOMING A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN IS A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW E OF BELIZE 
NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 21N85W TO THE 
LOW TO 16N87W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN 
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 
16N W OF 80W. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVES ACROSS THE FAR 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN 
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. FAIR 
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY 
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT 
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW INTO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT LINGERING MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE NW 
BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

HISPANIOLA...                   

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING 
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. FAIR 
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RESUME BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 33N53W SW TO 28N60W TO 
26N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-75W.


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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Dec-2014 00:03:54 UTC