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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 260003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 23W from
07N-16N, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
is being engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust that in part
inhibits convection in the northern region of the wave. In the
southern wave environment, moderate moisture, low values of deep
layer wind shear and a diffluent environment aloft support
scattered showers from 04N- 10N E of 29W.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis near
72W S of 15N to inland Colombia and Venezuela, moving W at 20 kt
within the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted
trough at 700 mb and a moderate moist environment from surface to
850 mb as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear
in the vicinity of the wave limits in part the convection to
isolated showers within 90 nm off the coasts of Colombia and
Venezuela between 68W and 75W.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N23W to 07N32W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins
near 07N32W and then continues along 07N48W to 06N57W. For
convection information see the tropical waves section.



The remnants of a surface trough continues to generate scattered
showers and isolated tstms within 90 nm off the Mexico eastern
coast from Tampico to Veracruz. In the SE Gulf, scatterometer data
continues to show a weak surface trough from 26N83W to 21N87W with
isolated showers and tstms within 60 nm either side of its axis.
Otherwise, a surface ridge prevails in the NE region of the basin anchored
by a 1019 mb high pres center near 28N85W. Gentle to moderate E-NE
flow is E of 90W while E-SE winds of the same magnitude dominate
westward. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
expected through Tuesday.


Shallow moisture across the NW Caribbean and a favorable
unstable environment aloft continue to support scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms along southern Cuba, the Yucatan
Channel and offshore waters of E Honduras. In the SW Caribbean,
the E Pacific monsoon trough along with instability provided by a
tropical wave moving across Colombia and the south-central
Caribbean support scattered to isolated showers and tstms S of
13N. At the upper levels, an elongated low centered NE the Mona
Passage and SW flow to the E generate a diffluent environment that
along with shallow moisture in the E Caribbean support scattered
heavy showers and isolated tstms E of 70W, including the Virgin
and Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a tropical wave is moving across
the south-central basin. See waves section above for details. Fresh
to strong trades continue in the central basin generated by a
strong gradient between low pres in the S-SW Caribbean and high
pres to the N-NE. Near-gale force winds are possible along the
coast of Colombia and adjacent waters. These winds will continue
beyond the next two days.


An elongated low at the upper levels centered NE the Mona Passage favors
lifting of shallow moist air across Hispaniola to support isolated showers
and tstms. Global models guidance indicate that shower activity
will continue through Mon, increasing in the afternoon and early
evening hours.


Scattered showers are NE of the Leeward and Virgin Islands being supported
by shallow moisture in the region and an area of diffluent flow at
the upper levels. Broad high pressure prevails elsewhere across
the basin N of 16N being anchored by a 1037 mb high N-NW of the
Azores near 43N32W. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a
surface trough from 29N59W to 25N54W with possible isolated
showers within 60 nm either side of its axis. Another surface
trough is along 20N49W to 16N49W. No showers noted nearby this
trough. A strong pressure gradient evident on earlier
scatterometer data offshore of NW Africa and in the vicinity of
the Canary Islands is supporting fresh to strong N-NE winds
generally N of 23N E of 26W. For tropical waves information, see
section above. Little change is expected across the basin within
the next 24 hours.

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