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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 20N 
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 
24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N21W IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N20W 
13N22W 10N24W 9N27W. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 21N 
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 23N BETWEEN 
50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND 
THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO 
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS 
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN 
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF 
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER...TO 10N29W 
AND 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 9N43W AND 11N51W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH 
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE 
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 
1008 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
32N77W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 26N87W 22N93W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL FROM 21N TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N BETWEEN 79W AND 
87W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 
77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... 
KBBF...KGVX...KGHB...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE 
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NOTHING IS BEING REPORTED AT THIS MOMENT. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO 
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS 
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN 
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 18N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 
13N NORTHWARD...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM JAMAICA 
WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 
77W AND 83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N80W IN PANAMA BEYOND 10N86W.  
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO 
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS 
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN 
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS 
CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING 
REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL 
FOLLOW THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS 
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 
HOURS...AND THEN THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...TO 
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED 
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR 
THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W 
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W 
AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N TO 27N. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA 
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 30N TO 
32N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS 
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Sep-2014 06:03:20 UTC