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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 042349 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 39.1W AT 04/2100 
UTC OR ABOUT 1112 NM SW OF THE AZORES...MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 36W-39W. PLEASE SEE THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N21W INTO A 1009 MB 
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 15 TO 20 KT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS AND IT IS CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY 
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 19N28W INTO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N29W...MOVING W AT 
AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE WAVE IS  
EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 15N. ISOLATED CONVECTION  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 29W-31W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 16N53W TO 09N56W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE IN A DRY 
ENVIRONMENT THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT 
THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 11N65W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS DEPICTED BY 700 MB MODEL FIELDS WITH A TROUGH BETWEEN 
60W AND 68W. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE MOISTURE SURROUNDING 
THIS WAVE BUT AT THIS MOMENT NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W...THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW/TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 11N21W...THROUGH THE 1008 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
12N29W...TO 12N38W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
09N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO 
LOWS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W AND 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY 
E OF 90W. TO THE SW...A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
23N96W TO 20N97W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION 
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT 
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 
16N88W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS BETWEEN 78W-84W 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY S OF 17N. TO 
THE E...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA 
PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS UPPER LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. 
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY 
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N76W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 
28N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC 
MAINLY W OF 78W. TO THE E...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW N OF OUR AREA 
EXTENDS ITS SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N63W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 54W-64W. 
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N49W WITH SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 26N52W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 43W-47W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
FRED AND A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE 
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...RESPECTIVELY. PLEASE 
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO 
OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE 
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1020 MB 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LIKELY N OF 25N W OF 55W WITH 
THE TWO WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE W ATLANTIC 
SURFACE LOW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Friday, 04-Sep-2015 23:49:53 UTC