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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory (Text)


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000
WTNT35 KNHC 290532
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed
for these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
estimated near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of
Erika will move near eastern Cuba this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression
later today. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate into a
trough of low pressure later today while it moves over the high
terrain of eastern Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican
Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions will
continue to affect Haiti, and spread into the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours, and
the central Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over eastern Cuba today and in the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through
Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected
to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and
Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas
through Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 05:32:15 UTC