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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 150852
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA WITH A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM PUNTA EUGENCIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES. THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO
SAN FELIPE AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO
TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 110.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 360SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 110.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.1N 111.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.7N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.0N 114.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.0N 113.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 30.7N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Sep-2014 08:52:42 UTC