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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 020231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
0300 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Oct-2014 02:31:27 UTC