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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 282030
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 138.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 138.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 138.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 138.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.4N 140.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.7N 144.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 138.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Sep-2016 20:31:39 UTC