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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 162033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.2N 101.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 100.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 20:33:18 UTC