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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 172050
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 108.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 20:50:54 UTC