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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Sep-2014 02:31:09 UTC