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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Sep-2014 02:31:41 UTC