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Hurricane POLO Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180234
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.7N 106.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 108.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 02:34:55 UTC