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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Oct-2014 14:46:19 UTC