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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory (Text)


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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR SABA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  66.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  930 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  66.5W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  66.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N  67.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N  69.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.2N  70.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.4N  71.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N  72.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N  66.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Sep-2017 14:40:19 UTC