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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTNT25 KNHC 251439
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  72.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  72.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.8N  73.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N  73.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.8N  73.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.7N  73.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N  71.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N  72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Sep-2017 14:40:35 UTC