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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTNT25 KNHC 211447
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEST OF ANDRES/BOCA CHICA.  THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ISLA
SAONA TO CABO ENGANO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO ANDRES/BOCA CHICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  69.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE  75SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  69.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  68.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N  69.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N  70.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N  71.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N  71.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N  72.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 33.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N  69.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Sep-2017 14:48:28 UTC