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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTNT25 KNHC 222040
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  71.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  71.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  71.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.3N  71.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.9N  72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.8N  72.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N  72.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 32.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N  71.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Sep-2017 20:41:36 UTC