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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTNT24 KNHC 231448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM NORTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT MANSFIELD AND FROM NORTH OF
SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
* NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILILTY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  92.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  92.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  92.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.3N  93.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.8N  93.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.2N  94.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.7N  96.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.0N  97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 29.8N  96.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.0N  95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N  92.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Aug-2017 14:48:42 UTC