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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTNT24 KNHC 301447
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ARUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR ARUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.  INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MATTHEW.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  70.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE  50SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  70.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  70.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.5N  71.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE  90SE  50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N  73.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N  74.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.7N  75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N  75.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N  70.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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