Tropical Storm IDA Forecast/Advisory

000
WTNT21 KNHC 072048
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  84.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  75SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  84.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  84.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N  84.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N  85.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  40SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N  87.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  40SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.3N  88.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...175NE  90SE  45SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.5N  87.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE  90SE  45SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N  86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  84.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI