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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162049
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the
past 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very
warm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave
satellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de
Los Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center
is located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC
ASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt
vectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is
set to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind
radii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm
warning along the west coast of Baja California.

The initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be
moving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
that is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge
over the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern
Mexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the
previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE.
Remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

As Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California,
little change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond,
rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the
rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to
dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation
over the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
 36H  18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 20:49:32 UTC