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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 122040
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Eugene has succumbed to the effects of the cool, dry airmass in
which it has become embedded.  Organized deep convection dissipated
earlier today and is unlikely to resume due to the system moving
over progressively colder waters west of Baja California.  Thus
Eugene has become a post-tropical cyclone.  An 1814Z ASCAT
scatterometer pass measured maximum winds of about 30 kt.  These
winds will gradually subside and by day 3 or 4 Eugene's circulation
is likely to open up into a trough.

Eugene's remnant low is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered
around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over
northwestern Mexico.  This motion should continue for the next
couple of days, then slow with a turn toward the west-northwest by
day 3. The track forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory
and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique.

Swells generated by Eugene affecting portions of the west
coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California
will be diminishing on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 24.1N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  13/0600Z 24.9N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1800Z 25.9N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z 26.8N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1800Z 27.7N 126.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1800Z 28.5N 128.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 12-Jul-2017 20:41:11 UTC