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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152043
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Visible satellite images show that the center of Odile remains well
defined while inland over central Baja California Sur.  An Air Force
plane flying over the Gulf of California recently measured surface
winds approaching hurricane strength.  While the Dvorak technique is
not valid for cyclones over land, using the inland Decay rate yields
a current intensity estimate of 70 kt.  It should be noted that
these highest winds are likely occurring over a very small area.
The official intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
very closely and shows the system weakening to a tropical storm in
12 hours and to a depression in 48 hours.  In 3-4 days, the system
should degenerate into a remnant low.  This is similar to the
previous NHC wind speed forecast.  Given the mountainous terrain of
the Baja California peninsula, the rate of weakening could be even
faster than anticipated.

The hurricane continues moving northwestward or 325/11 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Odile
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next day or so.
Afterwards, a low-level trough over southern California should
cause the weakening cyclone to turn northward and then
northeastward.  The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 25.5N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 26.8N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z 29.0N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1800Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  18/1800Z 30.8N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Sep-2014 20:43:37 UTC