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Post-Tropical Cyclone OCTAVE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152040
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

OCTAVE HAS MOVED MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE ROUGH
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...COUPLED WITH
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KT...HAS WEAKENED AND DISPLACED THE REMAINING
MODERATE CONVECTION MORE THAN 150 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS A
RESULT...OCTAVE NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FINALLY SEPARATED FROM THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LATTER FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE UNITED STATES SOUTHERN PLAINS...ENHANCING RAINFALL ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 26.9N 109.4W   20 KT  25 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED 

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Oct-2013 20:41:17 UTC