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Hurricane HILDA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080258
TCDEP5

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015

The hurricane continues to intensify at a rapid pace.  An earlier
AMSR-2 microwave overpass revealed that Hilda's inner core was
extremely compact.  In addition, visible and infrared geostationary
satellite imagery indicates that the system's eye has become better
defined, and the areal extent of cold cloud-top temperatures
surrounding the eye has increased over the past several hours.  The
current intensity estimate is raised to 90 kt, in accordance with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  There is strong upper-level outflow
associated with the cyclone, particularly over the western
semicircle of the circulation.

Hilda's intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 to
24 hours, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak.  In
about 48 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin encountering
stronger shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near the
Hawaiian Islands. Global models predict that the shear will increase
greatly beyond 72 hours.  Therefore a weakening trend is forecast to
commence in 48 hours, with rapid weakening likely in the latter part
of the forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

The initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west, or
280/13 kt.  The track forecast reasoning has not changed much since
the last advisory.  Hilda's track should gradually bend toward the
west-northwest and northwest over the next 96 hours or so, as the
cyclone moves to the south of a mid-level ridge and approaches a
cyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.
Near the end of the forecast period, the rapidly weakening system
should become a more shallow circulation, and turn more toward the
west within the low- to mid-tropospheric flow.  The official track
forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.

Since Hilda will be moving into the central Pacific basin very
soon, future information on this system will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Page last modified: Saturday, 08-Aug-2015 02:58:41 UTC