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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161458
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking
since the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of
the cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near
the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula with the
mid- to upper-level circulations tilted to the northeast over the
Gulf of California. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on
inland decay models and an earlier ASCAT overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Odile should move
northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
and later move over the Gulf of California later today, and turn
toward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern
Mexico. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the new forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory. A 48-hour remnant low position has been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

Odile will be moving across very warm waters of near 31C over the
northern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is
expected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, the SHIPS
and LGEM intensity models actually show some slight restrengthening
in 24 hours.  By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly
degenerate to a remnant low inland over northwestern Mexico, with
dissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation
over the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 28.4N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0000Z 29.2N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 30.2N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 31.2N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 32.3N 111.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 14:58:43 UTC