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Post-Tropical Cyclone HOWARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 032032
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016

Howard's deep convection has now been gone long enough to designate
the system as post-tropical, and this will be the last advisory.
The wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the low-end
estimate from ASCAT a few hours ago of 30 to 35 kt.  The circulation
of Howard should gradually spin down over the next few days due to
cold water temperatures, increasing shear and entrainment of dry
mid-level air. A strong surface high over the eastern Pacific should
cause an enhanced gradient, leading to stronger winds on the
northern side of Howard than normally would be expected.  The
official forecast reflects this solution, which is a bit higher than
the previous forecast.

Howard is moving 290/14, and should turn westward by tomorrow under
the influence of the subtropical ridge.  The post-tropical cyclone
should turn west-southwestward in a couple of days due to the
orientation of the ridge, and open up into a trough in 4 or 5 days
while the system is near the Hawaiian Islands.  Guidance remains in
good agreement, and only a small southward track change was made
in the new NHC track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 21.3N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  04/0600Z 21.7N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z 22.1N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 22.3N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 22.3N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 22.0N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 21.5N 156.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 03-Aug-2016 20:32:45 UTC