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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

The cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is
not very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers
have not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.  The
depression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during
the next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds
ahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is
close to the consensus and similar to the previous one.

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7
kt.  The depression is forecast to be steered toward the
north-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough
located to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward
the north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is
expected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow.
Little motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by
most of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very
closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 14:36:44 UTC