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Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080242
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

Simon has been devoid of organized deep convection for more than 12
hours.  Strong shear and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment
should prevent any significant redevelopment of convection, and the
system is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time.
Based on earlier ASCAT data, the initial wind speed remains 30
kt for this advisory.  The low should weaken during the next day or
so, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
an open trough within 24 to 48 hours as it interacts with land.

The low has turned northeastward this evening with an initial motion
estimate of 040/6 kt. A northeastward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected until dissipation occurs.  This will take
the cyclone, or its remnant, across north-central Baja California
and into Mainland Mexico.

Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it
across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture
associated with this system is expected to spread across the
northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into
the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those
regions during the next couple of days.  Please refer to statements
from your local weather office for information on hazards specific
to your area.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Simon.  For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 28.1N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 08-Oct-2014 02:42:34 UTC