Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some
developing convective bands. The center, however, is still exposed
due to shear and is located on the northeastern edge of the
thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on
T2.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the University of Wisconsin
CIMMS. Global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that the shear will
likely diminish, and since the cyclone is heading toward a pool of
warm waters, some strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days.
After that time, the cyclone should begin to interact with cooler
waters and a more stable environment, resulting in gradual
weakening.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 295 degrees at 9 knots. A nearly permanent mid-level high
pressure system over northern Mexico has been controlling the
tracks of many of the cyclones in this region, and this is same
story all over again. The NHC forecast calls for a west-northwest to
northwest track during the next 3 days with a slow turn to the north
thereafter. By then, the steering currents will probably collapse
and the cyclone will meander while it weakens.  The NHC forecast is
just a little bit to the south of the previous one following the
trend of the multi-model consensus TVCN, and considering that the
ECMWF and the latest GFS models are farther south than the
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 17.8N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Oct-2014 02:32:40 UTC