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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ44 KNHC 010238

900 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

There has been little overall change in the cloud pattern of the
depression this evening.  The system is producing some very deep
convection over the southern portion of the circulation, with only
slight evidence of banding features.  Upper-level outflow is rather
limited at this time, and mainly over the southern semicircle of
the circulation.  The current intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt,
which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  The
environment is expected to be only marginally conducive for
intensification over the next day or two.  A large upper-level
trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone should produce
15 to 20 kt of vertical shear on the cyclone for the couple of
days.  This could allow for some slow strengthening during the next
36 to 48 hours, as shown in the official intensity forecast.  Late
in the period, however, the shear is forecast to become
prohibitively strong and the system is likely to degenerate into
remnant low in 5 days or less.

The center is not easy to locate but based on the last-light
visible images, the motion is estimated to be 290/8.  A mid-
tropospheric ridge currently to the north of the depression is
forecast to shift gradually eastward while a trough becomes
established to the west of California and the northern Baja
California peninsula.  This evolution of the steering pattern is
likely to result in the cyclone turning northward and then north-
northeastward.  By the end of the forecast period, however, the
cyclone will likely have become quite shallow and consequently move
very slowly within the weak low-level environmental flow.  The
official track forecast is based largely on a dynamical model


INIT  01/0300Z 12.4N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.2N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 14.6N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 16.3N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 18.1N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 20.8N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 22.7N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 23.4N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 02:38:38 UTC