WTPZ44 KNHC 280233
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016
Ulika continues to maintain a small but well organized central dense
overcast. Geostationary satellite images indicate that the inner
core of the cyclone has become a little better organized during the
last several hours, and there are some hints of an eye feature in
the imagery. An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago revealed
maximum winds in the 50 to 55 kt range. Based on that data and a
Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial wind speed is increased
to 55 kt. Ulika is expected to remain in generally favorable
environmental conditions for another 12 to 24 hours, and the system
could be near hurricane strength overnight and early Wednesday.
Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly or
westerly shear should cause a steady weakening trend. Ulika is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days, but some of the
models suggest that the system could open up into a trough by then.
This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
Ulika is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a
mid- to upper-level low. The upper low is expected to move slowly
westward, which should cause the storm to turn northward on
Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday. After that time, Ulika
is expected to become a shallow cyclone, and it will likely turn
west-northwestward or westward in the low-level trade wind flow.
The models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, and only
a small shift to the right was made in the new NHC track forecast.
This prediction is in best agreement with the latest consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 13.3N 139.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW