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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Enhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively
shapeless, asymmetric, convective mass sheared to the northeast of
the surface circulation.  Although deep convection has increased
somewhat since yesterday, objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 kt.  The
global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are
indicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours
for some strengthening.  Through the remaining portion of the
period, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the
cyclone enters a region of high static stability and begins to
traverse cooler sea surface temperatures.  The official
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and FSSE
forecasts and is quite similar to the previous advisory.

A fortuitous 0849 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass helped immensely in
locating the surface center and estimating the current motion of
the depression which now appears to be northward or, 350/8 kt.  The
cyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the
next 36 hours or so.  After that time, a turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast through day 3.  By that point in time,
the tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of
low-level clouds and basically drift within the weak steering flow
created by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California
peninsula.  The NHC forecast continues to follow closely to the
multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 16.2N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.6N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 22.1N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 23.1N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 14:36:20 UTC