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Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 101434
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

NARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT.
ALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY
GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE
AIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 16.3N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 10-Oct-2013 14:35:04 UTC