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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 281434
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Dora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
the cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low composed of mostly
low-level stratocumulus clouds. Dvorak satellite classifications
support an intensity of 30 kt, and that is the intensity used for
this advisory. Redevelopment of significant convection is not
expected due to unfavorable SSTs of 22C-23C, and dissipation is
expected to occur in 36-48 h.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
to the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low
moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of
days. The new NHC forecast track is an extension of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TCVN.

This is the last advisory on Dora unless regeneration occurs. For
additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 20.1N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jun-2017 14:34:59 UTC