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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Ulika continues to maintain a small but well organized central dense
overcast.  Geostationary satellite images indicate that the inner
core of the cyclone has become a little better organized during the
last several hours, and there are some hints of an eye feature in
the imagery.  An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago revealed
maximum winds in the 50 to 55 kt range.  Based on that data and a
Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial wind speed is increased
to 55 kt.  Ulika is expected to remain in generally favorable
environmental conditions for another 12 to 24 hours, and the system
could be near hurricane strength overnight and early Wednesday.
Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly or
westerly shear should cause a steady weakening trend.  Ulika is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days, but some of the
models suggest that the system could open up into a trough by then.
This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Ulika is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a
mid- to upper-level low.  The upper low is expected to move slowly
westward, which should cause the storm to turn northward on
Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday.  After that time, Ulika
is expected to become a shallow cyclone, and it will likely turn
west-northwestward or westward in the low-level trade wind flow.
The models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, and only
a small shift to the right was made in the new NHC track forecast.
This prediction is in best agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 13.3N 139.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi