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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ44 KNHC 010851

300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A couple of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0530 UTC showed that the
cyclone was not quite yet producing tropical-storm-force winds--but
it was close.  A burst of convection has recently developed near
the low-level center, but the overall convective pattern is
somewhat elongated.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based
on the scatterometer data.  The depression still appears to be
experiencing some vertical shear, but this shear should stay below
15 kt for the next 36 hours or so.  Therefore, some gradual
strengthening is expected during that time.  Vertical shear
increases significantly after 48 hours due to the flow ahead of a
large upper-level trough west of the California coast, and the
cyclone should therefore weaken back to a depression by day 3 and
degenerate to a remnant low by day 4.  The updated NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus and largely unchanged
from the previous advisory.

The ASCAT data made the low-level center a little easier to locate,
and the initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to turn toward the northwest and north during the next
couple of days as it moves between a mid-level anticyclone over
Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of the Baja California
peninsula.  However, once it becomes a remnant low, the system is
likely to become trapped in weak low-level flow, meandering or
becoming nearly stationary southwest of the Baja California
peninsula by day 5.  The NHC track forecast is closest to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models.


INIT  01/0900Z 12.6N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 13.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 15.2N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 16.9N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.4N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 20.9N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 08:52:01 UTC