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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 312037
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

Lester's satellite appearance has not changed much since the last
advisory.  Although the eye has shrunk a little it remains quite
warm, and the convective ring around the eye still has tops colder
than -70C.  The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Lester
has some annular characteristics, with little convective banding.
Given the forecast track through a region of SSTs of 26-27C and in
low shear, steady weakening is expected through the forecast period.
Given the annular structure, the NHC forecast remains above most of
the guidance through much of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11.  The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Lester will continue to be steered westward
and then turn west-northwestward by a mid-level ridge centered north
of the Hawaiian Islands through the forecast period.  The track
models remain in generally good agreement on this scenario, but
there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance
near the Hawaiian Islands.  The GFS and UKMET models are along the
southern edge of the main guidance envelope, with a track near or
over the islands, while the HWRF, GFDL, and COAMPS-TC are farther
north.  The NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one,
and lies very close to the multi-model consensus through the period.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts
there could be along the island chain given the track forecast
uncertainty in the 3 to 5 day period.  The NASA Gulfstream-V jet is
flying a synoptic surveillance mission around Lester to acquire
additional data for tonight's 00Z global model cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 18.0N 139.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 18.2N 141.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 18.6N 143.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 19.2N 146.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 19.8N 149.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 21.4N 154.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 23.2N 159.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 25.0N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan