| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261439
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

It appears that northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment is
continuing to prevent Lester from strengthening.  The deep
convection associated with the tropical cyclone continues to burst,
but there is little evidence of banding features at this time.
Subject Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt from SAB
and TAFB, and the earlier ASCAT data suggests that the intensity was
around 45 to 50 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 50 kt for
this advisory.  The shear is expected to decrease very soon, which
favors some intensification while Lester remains over warm water
during the next few days.  Nearby dry air could occasionally
interrupt the intensification process during this time, so only
gradually strengthening is anticipated through 72 hours.  After that
time, slightly cooler waters and a more stable airmass near the
track could cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period.

Lester is moving westward or 280/6.  A strong mid- to upper-level
ridge centered well west of the Baja California is expected to
remain intact through the middle of next week.  This ridge should
steer Lester westward at a little faster forward speed throughout
the entire forecast period.  The guidance is in very good agreement
with this scenario, and the new NHC track is essentially an update
of the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 17.1N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 17.3N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 17.4N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 17.4N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.5N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 17.5N 127.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 17.5N 132.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 17.2N 137.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2016 14:39:21 UTC