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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290239
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The depression's cloud pattern is becoming less organized.  The
low-level center continues to be exposed, and the overall extent of
the cyclone's deep convection has diminished since yesterday.  What
few puffs of convection remain are shapeless and occurring in
sporadic bursts. Satellite classifications are T1.5 and T2.0 from
TAFB and SAB, respectively, suggesting that 30 kt is still a
reasonable intensity estimate.

A stiff northwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt affecting the depression
is supposed to decrease considerably during the next couple of days.
However, cooler waters and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic
factors such as even less available atmospheric moisture suggest
that weakening is likely. In fact, according to the global models,
it would be optimistic for depression to survive another 48 hours.
The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous
one, and is in agreement with the unanimous model guidance calling
for dissipation in 2 days or less.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10.  A low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge north of the depression should direct it
westward during the next day or so. Once the weak system becomes
even shallower, it is expected to trek westward or even west-
southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow until dissipation.
The official forecast is almost identical to the previous one as
well as to the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 17.0N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 17.1N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 17.2N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.3N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 02:39:30 UTC