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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302037
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

After Jimena's cloud pattern appeared somewhat ragged this
morning, it has recently become more symmetric and better organized.
The latest infrared images indicate that a ring of cloud tops colder
than -70 deg C surround the center, and the eye has increased in
diameter and become more distinct.  The larger eye suggests that
eyewall replacement could now be complete, and this is likely the
reason why the hurricane has begun to re-intensify.  Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from SAB and 6.5/127 kt
from TAFB, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value between these two
estimates. Based on the latest appearance of Jimena, the initial
wind speed is set near the high end of the estimates at 125 kt.

As mentioned in previous discussions, Jimena is expected to remain
in a low wind shear environment for the next several days.  However,
the cyclone is expected to track over progressively cooler water,
which should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken.  The official
intensity forecast shows some short-term strengthening, following
the current trend, and then predicts a slow decay.  This forecast is
higher than all of the guidance during the next day or so, but falls
in line with the SHIPS model from 36-120 h.

Jimena is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, 295/13
kt.  This motion is expected to continue for about 24 hours while a
subtropical ridge remains to the north and northeast of the
cyclone.  After that time, Jimena is forecast to decelerate as
steering currents weaken in response to an amplifying trough
extending southwestward from the western United States.  There was
little change in the latest model guidance, and the NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.  This forecast lies close to
the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 14.7N 130.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 15.2N 133.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 16.6N 137.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 17.1N 138.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 18.0N 141.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 19.8N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Aug-2015 20:38:04 UTC